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FEBRUARY 20,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT, AS WE ARE CAREFULLY WATCHING THE RETURNS IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

BULLETIN:  TRUMP WINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA, BUSH DROPS OUT – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:

With 99% of the vote in, Trump has 32.5%, Rubio is in second place with 22.5%, and Cruz is in third with 22.3%.  It's conceivable Rubio and Cruz could change places when all the votes are counted.  Essentially they're tied.

Yes, Trump won, but is that a famous victory?  Only 32.5%.  He never seems to get out of the low- or mid-thirties.  Not too great, I'd say.  

Jeb Bush has withdrawn.  I'd hope that John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson do the right thing and withdraw as well.  That would leave a three-man race, and it would get hot and bitter.  Cruz and Rubio would compete to be the anointed challenger to Trump, and Trump would try to destroy both of them.  A three-man race could easily result in a three-way split, or nearly a three-way split.

A major complication:  After March 15th, as I understand it, GOP rules require primaries to be winner-take-all, either by state or Congressional district.  That makes it much easier for Trump, if he maintains any kind of lead. 

The great majority of voters in Republican primaries have not voted for Trump.  Tonight, some 68% of South Carolina Republicans voted for someone else.  Those numbers call into question the design of this system.  Did anyone anticipate a race which began with 17 candidates on the debate stage?  Did anyone anticipate a "frontrunner" who isn't even a member of the Republican Party?

Within one month both Republican and Democratic nominations could be decided.  On the other hand, we could have an open convention in one or both parties.  Or Mike Bloomberg could get in as an independent and change the dynamics of the election.

An incredible election year.  I wish we had a Reagan.  We don't, and it's the nation's loss. 

February 20, 2016        Permalink 

BULLETIN:  CLINTON WINS NEVADA – AT 6:21 P.M. ET:  From Fox:

Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Democratic caucuses on Saturday, Fox News projects, beating Bernie Sanders and breathing new life into her campaign just a week-and-a-half after she lost to Sanders by double-digits in New Hampshire.

Though the victory appears to be a narrow one, Clinton is hoping the win will serve to undercut Sanders's momentum as they head next into several delegate-heavy contests.

"To everyone who turned out in every corner of Nevada with determination and heart: This is your win. Thank you," Clinton tweeted after the race was called.

With 75 percent of precincts reporting in Nevada, Clinton has 52 percent to Sanders' 48 percent.

Sanders congratulated Clinton on her victory in Nevada’s closely-contested caucuses, and said he looked forward to the primaries and caucuses ahead.

COMMENT:  Clinton dodged a major political bullet, and this should help her solidify a big win next Saturday when Democrats vote in South Carolina.

The upcoming primaries are mostly in Hillary-friendly states.  But looming is the FBI investigation.  Wouldn't it be interesting if Hillary knocked out Bernie, but then got knocked out herself by the FBI probe, and the Dems brought in Joe Biden?  Good movie.

February 20, 2016       Permalink

WHILE WE VOTE – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  A dangerous world gets more dangerous as America attends to electing a president.  From London's Daily Mail: 

Chinese state media have urged their national military to fire warning shots and deliberately ram U.S. warships that sail too close to their footholds in the disputed South China Sea.

U.S. ship Curtis Wilbur came within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels last month, catapulting tensions in the oil-rich region to an all-time high.

The commentary article declared China must 'teach the US a lesson' if they continue intruding on China's rightful territory, reports SCMP.

The Paracels have been under Chinese rule for over 40 years, deeming them the most fundamentally important foothold for China to defend, the article claimed.

The author proposed the American presence in the Paracels was intended to 'oppose China for the sake of opposing' – which called for 'proper toughness and deterrence.'

It comes after U.S satellite images surfaced this week showing advanced air defence missile system on Woody Island in the Paracels, igniting concerns over China's militarisation.

COMMENT:  That comes from state media, meaning that the article had the approval of the government.

China is building its military in a clear attempt to challenge American supremacy in the Pacific.  Field Marshal Obama promised a "pivot" to Asia in our military policy, but we haven't seen much pivoting.  In fact, we're cutting our defenses. 

When we flash weakness, potential enemies will see an opening.  That's how wars get started.

February 20, 2016       Permalink

SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEVADA VOTE – AT 11:30 A.M. ET:   This is a major political day.  The Republicans vote in the South Carolina primary.  In politics, South Carolina is sometimes called "the gateway to the South."  The Democrats caucus in Nevada.  The fear in the Clinton camp is that Bernie Sanders might upset Hillary in Nevada, casting even further doubt about her candidacy.

It is almost universally expected that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Republican primary.  The question is, by how much?  Trump is called the frontrunner, but that's only because the anti-Trump vote is currently divided among five candidates – Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Carson.  If Trump were running against just one candidate, the primary results might well be dramatically different. 

Trump is polling from the mid-thirties to the high-twenties in South Carolina.  If he comes in at the low end, that's not very impressive.  A frontrunner who consistently runs in, say, the low thirties, is not showing the kind of progress that leads to victory.

Watch for who comes in second and third, and how far apart they are.  It is expected, barring a big surprise, that Cruz and Rubio will occupy those positions, but the order is far from certain.  Some observers feel that Rubio has surged in recent days, as he did in New Hampshire. 

Super Tuesday is March 1st, right around the corner.  Will Trump get a big boost from South Carolina today, or will pundits start wondering whether he's hit a ceiling?  Will the guy in second place today go into Super Tuesday as the pundit-anointed "main challenger" to Trump? 

On the Dem side, the Nevada caucuses today will lead to the Democratic South Carolina primary next Saturday.  Polls show that Bernie can possibly take Nevada, although not by much.  But Hillary continues to hold a commanding lead in South Carolina, with its large African-American population.  That lead has narrowed over the weeks.  The key:  Will a Bernie victory today lead to further erosion by Hillary in next week's South Carolina vote?  If that happens, can Hillary still make a serious case for the nomination?

Joe Biden waits in the wings.

Mike Bloomberg waits in the wings. 

Watch those wings carefully.  Americans do not, right now, seem thrilled by their choices.

February 20, 2016       Permalink 

ANNIVERSARY – 11 MONTHS TO GO – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  The good news is that President Obama leaves office 11 months from today.  The bad news is that we still have 11 months left of this make-believe presidency.

We look forward to the countdown on the 20th of each month.  But let's not be too starry-eyed.  Obama is not a lame duck.  He continues to do enormous damage with executive actions and, in particular, with his adolescent foreign policy.  Now we will see him visiting Cuba, paying homage to the Castro boys.  I'm sure he was raised and nurtured with the idea that they are great agrarian reformers, targeted by right-wing America.  Then he will visit Vietnam.  I'm certain he was raised and nurtured with the idea that Vietnam was a victim of American imperialism and the industrial-military complex. 

Cuba and Vietnam are both dictatorships.  Obama will say a few words about human rights in each country, but he doesn't seem to care.  Human rights are not much of a deal on the left, where Obama resides. 

Iran is now rising rapidly, and buying modern weapons from nations more than eager for the business.   The Iranians now have the cash, thanks to the nuclear deal they made with the West, which included releasing tens of billions of dollars for the use of the Iranian mullahs.   Iran is already violating international agreements with its missile programs, but Obama barely notices.  He undoubtedly believes that Iran is an innocent victim of American intrigue.

So let us count down, but let us also realize that Obama, as someone once said of a British politician, is a bull who brings his own China shop with him.  The most dangerous period will come after our election in November, when Obama no longer has to worry about the effect his actions have on the Democratic Party.  He can literally go crazy, and there'll be nothing to stop him until inauguration day next January.

February 20,  2016     Permalink 

FEBRUARY 19,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

A PROPER GOODBYE – From Fox:  Renato Bialetti, the coffee king whose name is synonymous with the iconic aluminum stovetop esspresso makers, died last week at the age of 93.  In an unusual and strangely befitting tribute, the ashes of this well-known Italian coffee impresario were placed in a giant Moka pot, which he made famous, at his funeral this week in Montebuglio, Italy.  Bialetti didn’t invent the Moka. He just made it famous. A man named Luigi di Ponti designed the appliance in 1933 and sold the patent to Renato’s father Alfonso Bialetti, an aluminum vendor.  When John Kerry departs, they can entomb him in a Cuban cigar.

KERRY IN HOLLYWOOD – From the Washington Free Beacon:  Oh, to have been at John Kerry’s meeting Tuesday with a dozen Hollywood executives at Universal Studios. To have sat in one of the cushy leather chairs beneath a vintage poster for The Phantom of the Opera, sipping bottled water, relaxing in the Mediterranean climate of southern California, and been solicited by the U.S. secretary of State for advice on how to defeat radical Islam. What a confirmation of one’s status in the film industry, of one’s place in the global economy, of one’s importance to the Democratic Party. “Great convo w studio execs in LA,” Kerry tweeted after the discussion, “Good to hear their perspectives & ideas of how to counter #Daesh narrative.”  I have been at a number of Hollywood meetings.  The most important objective is fighting insomnia.  The second most important objective is remembering the names of executives whose careers will last another two weeks.

WHY WE FIGHT – From American Thinker:   The top spiritual leader appointed by the Palestinian Authority, Mufti Hassan Al-Laham, appears regularly on Palestinian TV talk shows discussing sharia law and how it applies to everyday life.  Recently, the mufti talked about the finer points of beating your wife – permissible under Islamic law.  The shocking interview with Hassan Al-Laham, who holds the title “mufti of Gaza,” came during a weekly Palestinian Authority TV program on social issues. Explaining that divorce must be a last resort in Islam, Al-Laham laid out the four steps that should come first.  "Allah said: Warn them [the wives], and separate from them, and hit them, and bring an arbitrator from his family and an arbitrator from her family," he said.  Please notice the absolute silence of "women's" organizations about this obscenity.  I guess left-wing agendas trump women's rights on the feminist left.  They always have.

February 19, 2016       Permalink

ANYONE SURPRISED? – AT 10:51 A.M. ET:  President Obama, true to his leftist pedigree, is getting set to visit Cuba.  Even some Democrats are questioning the timing, as Cuba has not done a thing to free its people from bondage since Obama "normalized" relations with the Communist country. 

Indeed, the Castro regime is now increasing its crackdown on human rights.  From Bloomberg: 

Even some supporters of President Barack Obama’s moves to strengthen relations with Cuba are questioning the timing of his planned visit to the Communist island next month, after arrests of dissidents by Raul Castro’s government reached a five-year high.

Obama vowed Thursday that he’ll promote human rights during his historic visit, the first by a sitting American president since 1928. But more than a year of warming relations between the nations, separated by just 90 miles, have so far failed to slow the Cuban government’s crackdown on political dissidents.

The Madrid-based Cuban Observatory on Human Rights said 1,474 people, including 512 women, were “arbitrarily” detained in January. The arrests have been climbing since the December 2014 announcement that the two governments would improve ties.

“A presidential visit should occasion a broader progress on the human-rights agenda. And I haven’t seen any changes on that front,” said Christopher Sabatini, an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs who has supported the rapprochement.

COMMENT:  Why shouldn't the Castro boys crack down on the opposition?  They know from their observations of the Obama administration that there will be no penalty paid.  Indeed, Obama seems to have a certain respect for authoritarian governments, and little respect for democracy.  In 2009 it took him four days to meander over to a microphone and denounce the Iranian crackdown on dissidents.  And his words were mild, even grudging.

Obama normalized relations with Cuba without demanding a single concession on human rights.  What, precisely, does this country stand for these days?

February 19,  2016     Permalink

SPEAKING OF MIKE BLOOMBERG – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  He doesn't make many speeches, but he made some comments yesterday that sure sounded like a preliminary announcement.   From Headline News: 

Former New York mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said Thursday that the candidates leading the 2016 presidential race are capitalizing on Americans’ outrage over a political system that is “corrupt, gridlocked and broken.” Offering new insights into his thinking as he contemplates a third party bid for the White House, Bloomberg described the campaign as “a race to the extremes” with candidates who are exploiting voters who “have lost faith” in the country’s institutions. “The list of supposed villains we hear about is long,” Bloomberg, a billionaire who served three terms as mayor of New York, said at a celebration for conservative author Peggy Noonan’s new book. “But the actual solutions that Americans seek have been in short supply.”

COMMENT:   Gee, that sounds pretty presidential to me.  Personally, from a journalistic viewpoint, I hope Mike jumps in.  It would make the race that much more interesting, and he would add some sobriety. 

He is not charismatic.  He can cure anyone's insomnia.  But Bloomberg is a serious man who served three honorable terms as mayor of New York, sometimes called "the second toughest job in the nation."  (Indeed, one of his curses is that mayors of New York tend not to go higher.  Witness the great Rudy Giuliani.)  Bloomberg's oft-observed lack of charisma might well be an asset.  I think many people are yearning for less volume, more thought. 

Political speculation is that Bloomberg will only get in if polling shows he could possibly win.  He doesn't see his role as that of spoiler.  Ross Perot, an awful candidate, got 19% of the vote in 1992, running as a third-party choice.  I think Bloomberg would do much better, especially as he has endless funds with which to introduce himself to the American people.  But he would not only need at least a third of the popular vote, he would have to carry states in the Electoral College, a much tougher proposition.

He is 74.   Realistically, this is his last chance.  I think he will most likely jump in if his polling shows very high voter dissatisfaction with the current frontrunners, which it does. 

February 19, 2016       Permalink

HILLARY'S FUTURE – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  No one seriously expected that Bernie Sanders, an elderly socialist from Vermont with a distinct New York accent, would be so successful in challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But challenge he has.  Bernie is actually ahead of Clinton in some national polls.  I suspect this isn't because Bernie himself is so popular.  Rather, it's a backlash against Clinton, who is seen by many as deceptive, around too long, and last generation. 

It may be unfair, to the extent that Hillary beats the pants off Sanders in every debate.  She is far more knowledgeable and grounded.  He's a flaky socialist with ridiculous solutions.  If I absolutely had to choose between the two for president, I would have to choose Hillary, but the pain would be great.  Fortunately, there's another party. 

Bernie may win the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.  But then the road for him gets tougher.  The Dems vote in the critical South Carolina primary a week from Saturday, and Hillary maintains a commanding lead.  From Fox:

While the Democratic race in South Carolina has narrowed, Hillary Clinton continues to trounce Bernie Sanders.

Likely Democratic primary voters favor Clinton over Sanders by 28 points (56-28 percent), according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. Another 17 percent remain undecided or plan to back someone else.

In December, Clinton held a 44-point lead (65-21 percent).

The South Carolina electorate is more diverse than those of Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that have held contests so far -- and that helps the former secretary of state. Even so, sentiment has shifted among some of Clinton’s best groups.

Clinton led among black voters by 82-11 in December (71 points). The new poll finds she leads Sanders by 63-21 percent among blacks (42 points). That’s still a big lead, no doubt. But there’s been a 29-point narrowing.

In addition, two months ago Clinton topped Sanders by 55 points among women (72-17 percent). Now she’s up by 33 points (58-25 percent).

COMMENT:  All true.  But there was a time when Clinton had the field to herself.  She was "inevitable."  With Sanders in the race, there was bound to be some erosion.  There are some voters who will vote for anyone except the frontrunner.

Hillary still leads in superdelegates, the "professional Democrats" who are selected to go to the convention to balance out the childness of the primary voters.  She also leads among minorities.  She may yet stabilize her situation and win the nomination.

The 900-pound gorilla in the room is not Bernie Sanders, it's the FBI investigation.  If it goes sour for Hillary, she may be toast, in which case the Democratic powers will try to bring in Biden to stop Bernie, and they may be successful.

The other 900-pound gorilla, not yet in the room, is former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who can finance his own campaign.  If he gets in, he may well take more votes from the Democratic candidate than from the other side. 

The Democratic race is as fascinating as the Republican, but at least no Republican is facing jail time.

February 19, 2016       Permalink